The 2020 Election – What will happen?

Its two days before the election and time to look at what may happen and why.

In normal times, Trump would be a shoe-in. He’s an incumbent running for a second term, the economy recovering from the COVID shock, and 56% of Americans are saying they are better off than they were four years ago.

Without taking any other factors into consideration, this one resembles the 1972 election between Nixon and McGovern, when Nixon collected 520 electoral votes. That year McGovern ran as the Anti-Vietnam War candidate, who would cut defense spending. To be fair, Nixon was the incumbent and the economy was doing well, so that gave him an advantage. McGovern was an outsider, perhaps a populist at the wrong time, with a message centered on the war.

The McGovern defeat has cast a long shadow over the Democratic Party. This shadow takes the form of the party elders controlling how far Left the party goes to avoid alienating independent voters. It has been standard operating procedure in recent decades for the Democratic Party to be strongly Left during the primary season, and then move toward the center for the general election.

This year the party has stayed left and used a prop, Joe Biden, to make it look like it is operating from the center. The real story is that Kamala Harris is radically Left, put there to appease the Left wing of the party. In addition, the Democrat platform is essentially socialist: free schools, free healthcare, forgive student debt, and implementation the Green New Deal. The latter would force the phase out of the lowest cost energy resources.

The extreme Left focus of the Democrats would appear to help Trump, but there are three mitigating this scenario: the media’s assault on Trump, the media’s silence about the Democrat agenda, and Trump’s personality. In the time since 2016, the media as lost all credibility. Journalism is dead, or at least objective journalism is dead. The media are now the marketing arm of the Democratic Party.

Since the media are Left-leaning, every idea that is Right-leaning is discounted. Furthermore, any idea that is Left-leaning, no matter how radical, is supported or not criticized. For example, there is no one on the Left reporting on the cost of the Democrat socialist programs. It would be useful to determine whether the Federal budget could stand the strain of a welfare state. The Left, when pushed about this, asserts that the money will be raised by taxing rich people. Unfortunately, there aren’t enough rich people to pay for these programs, so the middle class will be covering the shortfall.

Whenever one of the Democrat candidates misspeaks and says something controversial, a handler comes forward with a reinterpretation of what was said. Look at the fracking issue. The Democratic candidates pretend they won’t ban fracking even though their party platform says so. Denial avoids the exposure of a controversial position. Here is a quote from the 2020 Democratic platform.

“We support banning new oil and gas permitting on public lands and waters, modifying royalties to account for climate costs, and establishing targeted programs to enhance reforestation and develop renewables on federal lands and waters.”

The Trump personality creates more uncertainty about the election. There are at least three positions on him: some hate Trump because of his personality, some overlook Trump’s personality and look at what he’s trying to accomplish, and some like his pushiness as a sign of strength and they respect him for it. Trump’s behavior is an issue he created, and it might cost him the election.

So, what about the election?

The poll numbers look like 2016. They are wrong this time too, but by how much? The Left likes to say that Biden’s lead is bigger than Hillary’s so he’s locked in. The pollsters also say they have corrected their models since 2016, but who knows whether that is true. There is no doubt that some people are providing false information to the pollsters. These are the “shy” conservatives. They hate what the media has become and will not play their game.

Exit polls in early Wisconsin voting showed that 6% of the voters refused to say how they voted. One suspects there are more conservatives in this group than liberals. Wouldn’t liberals be proud to announce who they voted for? Conservatives are so beaten down by the Left: called out, attacked, and ridiculed, it makes sense that they’d want to keep their views to themselves.

There are other factors at work also. The Left’s position is that suburban Moms are moving away from Trump because they don’t like is personality. Is Trump’s personality more important to them then law and order? I doubt it. The rule of law is fundamental to any stable society and there are a lot of Americans who value that principle. Ideas like defunding the police, and taking over parts of cities to rule lawlessly is not something most people like to imagine becoming reality.

There are a lot of Americans who believe in fairness. The idea that riots are acceptable in the time of COVID, and family gatherings are not, is fundamentally absurd.

Many of the riots have including the tearing down of statues – some having nothing to do with the issues being debated. The Left doesn’t understand that tradition is important and should not be discarded. Tradition provides a roadmap to move society forward. Without that roadmap any society would end up like France did during its revolution – in a state of anarchy.

A statue of Robert E. Lee should remind us that he lived in another time; a time when people believed slavery was acceptable. But that concept was ultimately rejected as immoral and American society moved forward toward a freer and fairer place for all our people. The true lesson is the rejection of immorality.

Is there an enthusiasm factor?

Polls show 48% of Biden’s supporters are enthusiastic about him; Trump’s support is at 77%. One can observe that by looking at the size of the Trump rallies. Why do the Democrats have so few at their rallies? It can’t be COVID because supporters could practice social distancing and still attend these events. Small crowds more likely demonstrate less enthusiasm for Biden.

What will the results be?

Trump has a similar path to victory this time. It starts with four battleground states he must win: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio. He must also win two of the following states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona. That would give him enough electoral votes to win the election.

The early states will prove out the extent of polling error, and provide a guide for what will happen later.