Red State Versus Blue State Reopening

Its interesting to observe the difference in the red state and blue state opening’s, which are designed to carry the country back to full operation. I’m defining red and blue not by typical voting pattern but by the party of the state’s governor, who manages the response to the pandemic. Red state behavior shows a determined effort to move forward, while blue state efforts demonstrate a determined effort to stay closed. Why would that be? One might guess that part of the reason is due to blue states having large cities, which have concentrated populations leading to greater transmission of the disease. But that can’t tell the whole story.

Of the top ten states by population, five are red and five are blue. All have big cities.

Among the red states, twenty are open now. Five will open in mid-May, and one (Maryland) has no open date.

Among the blue states, five are open now, seven will open around mid-May, and the other twenty intend to open at the end of May or later.

Some of the behavior is logical. The Northeast is hit hard, particularly New York and New Jersey. Connecticut has a high commuter volume to New York. Massachusetts has Boston, and Rhode Island sits in the middle.

Likewise, one would expect the low-density states to be minimally affected and able to recover quite easily.

We can evaluate how well each state is doing managing the virus by dividing the population by the number of cases. That corrects for the size of the states. The ten best are Montana, Alaska, Hawaii, Oregon, West Virginia, Maine, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Texas, and Kentucky. Six of these ten are open.

The ten worst states are New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Louisiana, Delaware, Illinois, Michigan, and Maryland. None of these are open. Big cities are certainly a factor in all except Delaware, Rhode Island, and Connecticut.

Some states have a strategy that makes them an outlier. Maine has been 6^th best at managing its caseload, and it has had 56 deaths since the outbreak began. It has a stay at home order in place until May 31^st. Maine’s opening schedule follows.

As of May 1, gatherings of 10 or more people are prohibited, and all people entering or returning to Maine must quarantine for 14 days. This constitutes Stage 1.

For Stage 2, tentatively beginning June 1, only gatherings with less than 50 people are allowed, and maintains the aforementioned 14-day quarantine for those entering or returning to the state. There would also be some degree of reopening for restaurants, retail stores, lodging and campgrounds (for those who have met the 14-day requirement) and more.

In Stage 3, tentatively beginning July 1, gatherings with less than 50 people will continue to be allowed but the 14-day quarantine for visitors continues. Also, there would be some degree of reopening for lodging, hotels, summer camps and RV parks for both Maine residents and visitors.

There is also a Stage 4, although the timeline is undetermined, that would allow for businesses and activities to resume with the appropriate safety precautions and lifting the previous restrictions.

Hawaii also has a very conservative approach, even though it is 3rd best at managing cases. Below is its epidemic chart:

Hawaii reached its peak in number of new cases on March 18^th. They have had 16 deaths since the outbreak. Hawaii has a stay at home order until May 31^st. Beaches can be used and some elective surgeries can be performed. Maui is putting together a plan to reopen, because they haven’t had any cases in a couple of weeks.

Texas and California are interesting cases, with very different approaches. Texas is 9^th in population case ratio and has done a great job. It has restaurants and bars open, with reduced capacity. Malls and movie theaters are also open. California has also done a great job, but has been closed up tight with a schedule to hold off reopening until May 31^st. It appears the governor is now reacting to pressure to get the reopening started, because he announced that some businesses could open on May 8^th. These include places such as book, clothing, toy, and sporting goods stores as well as music shops and florists. Still, a very conservative opening strategy.

At the opposite end of the spectrum are states like South Dakota, which never closed. It has experienced 800 cases and 21 deaths since the pandemic began. South Dakota is using Hydroxychloroquine in a clinical trial to treat the disease.

How is Georgia doing – the first state to open?

On April 20^th, Georgia reached its peak for the number of new cases added daily. That was four days before the open. Now 11 days into the open, the new case numbers are steady at a low level.

There is no question that we've reached one of the critical milestones of the pandemic; the point were open states will prove whether the disease can remain under control. Citizens of the states holding back will be watching closely. If things go well, there will be a stampede.

Are there politics at work here? Probably. It is an election year and the Left would like to postpone a strong economic upturn until after the election. The stock market is betting on faster versus slower. The S&P 500 lost 33% of its value in March, but since then has regained 21%.