The Coronavirus Pandemic

The current global pandemic is an unmatched in human history, with respect to the human reaction and efforts to overcome it with science. There have been pandemics before, as recently as 2009, when the HIN1 virus killed 12,000 Americans between April 2009 and April 2010. This virus is uniquely different and that is part of the reason why the governmental and public reaction has been unprecedented. This time, we have economic turmoil, government action, panic, and politics as a dangerous mixture.

The first case of H1N1 was detected in California on April 15, 2009. CDC reported the outbreak to the WHO (World Health Organization) on April 21st. On June 11th, the WHO declared a global pandemic.

By June 19th, all of the states in America had active cases. Caseload peaked in May and June 2009, before declining in July and August. Cases of the seasonal flu remained higher than normal that summer and the H1N1 flu returned by mid-August. By September 21^st, vaccines for the virus had been approved. The H1N1 reoccurrence peaked in October, and dropped to a low level by January 2010. The CDC took an aggressive approach to identifying this virus, quantifying the disease, and working to develop a vaccine. The HHS director declared a health emergency on April 26, 2009 and President Obama declared a national emergency in October of that year. Government actions were appropriate and timely, and the Obama administration should not be criticized for the way the H1N1 pandemic was handled.

Now fast forward to 2020.

On December 31, 2019, China reported the first case of the new virus to the WHO. January 7^th, China identified the virus as an unknown new type. On January 20th, the US NIH announced they would begin working on a vaccine for this Coronavirus and, on the same day, Washington state reported the first case in the United States. On January 23rd, the Chinese shut down Wuhan province.

On January 31^st, President Trump moved to block the entry of Chinese nationals who had visited China in the last 14 days.

February 3^rd, the Chinese government accused the United States of overreacting to the disease.

February 25^th, The CDC announced that it would start testing Remdesivir in clinical trials to see if it could cure the Coronavirus.

February 26^th, President Trump named Mike Pence to direct the Coronavirus response team.

On March 11^th, the WHO declared a pandemic for the Coronavirus.

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This pandemic has had the greatest impact on the American economy of any health-related problem in the nation’s history. The 1918 flu epidemic, which killed 675,000 Americans, had only a minor effect. Entertainment and travel businesses were severely impacted over the short time and some wages increased due to a shortage of labor. During the entire period of the pandemic, President Wilson never said one word about the disease in public.

This time, we have instant access to information about the economy, the markets, and the American people.

The first significant driver during this pandemic was the stock market, which is always driven by profit expectations for the economy and America’s corporations. On February 21^st the S & P 500 stood at a level of 3337. It began to plummet soon after as investors realized the impact the pandemic might have on company earnings. On February 28^th, the index stood at 2954, a loss of 12%. The real rout began when investors realized that not just the travel industry would be impacted – the entire US economy was being shut down as an effort to stop the spread of the virus. On March 23^rd, the index had fallen to 2237 or a 34% drop! There was undoubtedly significant panic selling during that time, much of it by professional traders who try to time the market. Smart investors have stayed the course, knowing that prices will recover. Still, the loss is a shock to those with investment portfolios.

The second factor in play is government action. Trump has used has advisors in the NIH and CDC the way he should; letting them provide the picture as they see it so he has the information he needs to make decisions. For all the squawking about delays, the CDC was reacting to the outbreak very early. They did not run into trouble until the demand grew for test kits. For all the good science they do, the CDC shouldn’t be in the distribution business. Their requirement that test kits had to be issued by them or, even worse, that they had to do all the testing, became obsolete policy in less than a week. Quickly, the testing process was moved to state and private labs. This is a great example of why big government should not control large segments of the American economy. The federal government is too bureaucratic and too slow to react.

This pandemic reminds us of the military’s rule about war. When the first battle starts, throw out the battle plan.  

After the first missteps, the states were engaged and took over the testing. Since then, it has gone more smoothly. Creating inventory for essential medical equipment is now the highest priority. Of course, it takes some time to ramp up production, particularly when stockpiles are inadequate. Manufacturers produce product based on market conditions and don’t produce what they can’t sell.

The most significant government actions were the social distancing and business shut down declarations. These have had a great impact on the lives of every American. Staying home, not working, kids home, not in school – this has never happened in the history of the country. These restrictions cause anxiety, depression, and worry over sources of income that every family depends on. Many have or will lose their jobs and be unemployed.

The financial to all Americans has driven the federal government to unprecedented action to make up for the income shortfall. The recently passed $ 2.4 trillion recovery plan seeks to provide support for all segments of the American economy: unemployment payments to individuals, forgivable loans to small businesses, and aid for the most hard-hit industries. This aid was essential for the mental well being of the American people and the stabilization of the economy.

Bipartisan agreement in Congress was good to see as the parties put their differences aside for once. I am more surprised at the Republican response than the Democratic response, because Republicans have the reputation as hard-hearted capitalists, who don’t care for the common man. In this case, they have been upfront with their willingness to spend the money to help small business and individuals, no matter what the cost. The same can be said for the president, who built his case for re-election on the success of the economy. Rather than keeping the focus on the stock market, he has pivoted to placing the American people first. In his view, if we can remove the disease, the economy will fix itself.

The third component of the times is panic. The Coronavirus produces panic because of its novelty and behavior. It spreads like wildfire, and its infection rate is high. It’s easy to forget that the virus produces only cold-like symptoms in 80% of those who are infected and that most people, who are younger and don’t have underlying health conditions, will be fine. Those who have compromised health can be easily infected by contact with others and become seriously ill. The media is adding to the panic because there are few positive stories being written. Instead, they are focused on shortages, deaths, and personal hardship. This negative press weighs on the psyche of the people. One good plan for protecting one’s mental health is to avoid overexposure to the news.

In some cases, the professionals don’t help. The public wants absolute answers, but there aren’t any. The virus took hold too fast, and the research has to catch up. An accurate understanding of the disease takes time and the public has to understand that projections are estimates based on data accumulated from real world experience. Testing has to be used on everyone to establish how the disease operates. Counting only cases ignores those who already have immunity or have the disease with no symptoms. Sometimes the CDC mentions the concept of “herd” spread. This refers to the disease making its way through the entire population. Once that has happened, we’ll know how many are susceptible. As frustrating as it is to the public, the professionals can only say what they know even when the data is estimated.

In my state (Ohio), the governor has been very aggressive about stopping the spread of Coronavirus. He identified the risk early and appeared to be overreacting. Hindsight shows he was right on. I can’t say the same for his medical director who keeps presenting data that can scare a lot of people. She continues to say that the state should expect a period of 10,000 new cases in the state per day, before we reach a peak. I find that hard to believe given that the state infection rate curve is bending at 300 additional cases per day. Her numbers would probably have been correct if the state had not taken strong measures it did.

Scaring people might be good or bad. Who knows which is appropriate? It’s good if it creates compliance; its bad if it affects people’s mental health.

The fourth component to Coronavirus ecosystem is politics. This is an election year and the Left’s dislike of Trump will not allow them to unite with the rest of us to take on this unprecedented problem. They have an obvious effort underway to discredit Trump’s handling of the crisis, in order to impact his popularity and prospects for reelection. What they risk is exposing themselves as biased and selfish. That negative perception could outweigh any positive impact they think they are having.

Let’s look at a few facts.

If you indict Trump for being slow to react, you have to also indict the leaders of the other 140 countries that have been attacked by the disease. Is every world leader incompetent?

If you indict Trump for being slow, you have to indict the CDC and NIH for not having a handle on the seriousness of the outbreak and not getting anyone’s attention. As I pointed out above, NIH started looking into a vaccine for the virus the same day Washington state reported the first domestic case of the disease. That was January 20^th. They were on it.

You can’t indict Trump for blocking people coming from China and Europe, because that undoubtedly bought us time to react to the coming pandemic.

You can’t indict Trump for supply shortages. I don’t believe either the federal government or the states are to blame because no one could have foreseen the progress of this disease. Its rapid spread overwhelmed the supply chain of the country as well as federal government stockpiles. The only way to fix this problem was to engage industry to ramp up production. The support of industry has been tremendous and soon we will have all the supplies we need.

Trump has not engaged in politics with the states and has received some high marks from Democratic governors. By now, all the governors understand that they are in partnership with the administration and working together is the best for all.

Most of the politicking has come from Congressional leaders and the media, but when you look closely, our political leaders cannot escape their own behavior.

On February 24^th, Nancy Pelosi appeared in Chinatown, San Francisco saying “We want people to come to Chinatown. We are safe here.” This was a month after the first case appeared in Washington state.

As late as March 15^h, the mayor of New York, Bill De Blasio had not placed any pandemic related restrictions on the people of the city. He said, “if you love your neighborhood bar, go there now.”

We need to keep politics out picture until the pandemic is over.